Georgia has benefited from the Russia-Ukraine war and the sanctions imposed on Russia, as cargo transit through other countries' routes became more desirable. However, uncertainties remain — this was stated by Albert Park, Chief Economist of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), in response to a question from an Interpressnews correspondent during an ongoing meeting in Milan.

According to the Interpressnews correspondent on site, Park highlighted three main geopolitical “uncertainties”: the potential lifting of sanctions on Russia, the establishment of peace in Ukraine, and possible policy changes by a future Donald Trump administration.

The ADB Chief Economist noted that if these three events were to occur, Georgia could lose part of the business it attracted after the start of the war in Ukraine, and this could have certain effects on the country’s economy.

“Georgia, like some of Russia’s neighboring countries, benefited from the Russia-Ukraine war and the sanctions imposed on Russia, as cargo transit through routes other than Russia became preferable. Naturally, this situation created some economic gains, but now there is uncertainty — specifically, if sanctions are lifted, peace is restored in Ukraine, and Trump’s administration changes its policies, the situation may return to pre-war economic conditions. As a result, Georgia could lose part of the business it attracted during this period,” said Albert Park.

When asked what Georgia should do to retain part of the business amid geopolitical uncertainties, Park said the country should focus on becoming cost-efficient in the Middle Corridor trade route.

“I think attention should be focused on making Georgia as efficient as possible in the Middle Corridor trade route — by reducing transaction costs and eliminating any existing bottlenecks. As economists, we see it this way: once people get used to a cost-effective route, they are reluctant to go back to the old system. Therefore, Georgia can retain this business, but only if it remains competitive in service provision. For now, the priority should be maintaining service efficiency before any sanctions are lifted. I assume Georgia will be able to retain part of this business, but not all of it — that will depend on how effectively it can deliver its services,” said Albert Park in response to Interpressnews.

For reference, the 58th Annual Meeting is being held in Milan from May 4 to 7. This year’s main theme is “Sharing Experience, Building Tomorrow.”