"I don’t think there will be a serious escalation. Iran will try to save face, and Israel will accept these rules of the game – this, of course, is a weakening of Iran, and consequently, a weakening of Russia," – said Valeri Chechelashvili, head of geopolitical research at the Center for Strategic Analysis, while discussing Israel’s strike on Iran.

Speaking on PalitraNews’ program “Resume”, he stated that the escalation was caused by the fact that the U.S. lost hope of reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran – and now there’s a higher chance that Iran might return to the negotiation table with the U.S.

"It appears this operation was well-prepared. The strikes were precise, targeting not only individuals or nuclear facilities, but also ballistic missile bases. I believe Iran suffered serious losses. It was said that Iran had around 800 ballistic missiles, and approximately 200–250 of them were damaged in the strikes. Since Iran’s military leadership was rendered dysfunctional, the decision-making mechanisms in the country were disrupted, and all they could manage was to launch a drone attack with around 100 drones against Israel.

Iran will of course attempt something in response, but it seems that Iran is left alone. Russia issued a rather toothless statement, merely noting that Putin is being briefed and is aware of the situation. Erdoğan also commented, saying this is an escalation and that he is against it. In reality, Turkey doesn’t have ideal relations with Russia and cannot be considered its true partner. It seems Iran is completely isolated.

Iran might now use ballistic weapons. A ballistic missile can carry up to one ton of explosives. However, Israel has extremely advanced air defense systems, so I doubt Iran will be able to inflict major damage. Even if one or two missiles make it through and hit Israeli territory, causing casualties, it would still be disproportionate compared to the potential harm Iran could have inflicted in the future by developing nuclear weapons – which was likely a serious enough threat to push Israel into action.

I don't think there will be a serious escalation. Iran will try to save face, and Israel will accept these rules of the game. I believe there’s now a higher chance that Iran will move toward a nuclear deal with the United States.

What changes globally? This is clearly a weakening of Iran, and consequently, a weakening of Russia."

For context: Israel recently carried out strikes on Iran targeting nuclear and military facilities. According to the Israel Defense Forces, the strikes killed the Chief of Staff of Iran’s army, a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the head of Iran’s emergency response forces. Iran confirmed that at least six scientists working on nuclear issues were killed in the Israeli airstrikes. In response, Iran launched around 100 drones toward Israeli territory.