At its meeting on December 17, 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Georgia decided to keep the monetary policy rate (the refinancing rate) unchanged.

According to information released by the National Bank, the monetary policy rate remains at 8.0 percent.

“As expected, in line with the NBG’s central scenario, inflation has begun to normalize and stood at 4.8 percent as of November. At the same time, long-term inflation expectations remain stably within the target range, as reflected in relatively rigid price indicators. In particular, core inflation—which excludes highly volatile food, energy, and cigarette prices from the consumer basket—stood at 2.3 percent. Service inflation is also close to the target level, at around 2.6 percent. Inflation above the current target of 3 percent is still mainly driven by food prices, which partly reflects the low base effect from last year and exogenous factors. According to the central scenario, all else being equal, the increase in food prices will have only a temporary impact on inflation, and its effects will gradually fade. At the same time, aggregate demand, in line with expectations, is gradually returning to its long-term trend, easing demand-side pressure on prices. Based on the above, under the central scenario, inflation is expected to average 4 percent in 2025, while from the second quarter of 2026 it will approach the target level and average 3.5 percent annually.

Given the high level of uncertainty, upside risks to inflation are more pronounced, although downside risks also remain. Accordingly, alongside the central scenario, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) considered both high-inflation and low-inflation risk scenarios and took into account risks acting in different directions when making its decision.

The high-inflation risk scenario considered by the MPC assumes, on the one hand, a prolonged period of elevated flexible-price inflation (mainly food prices). In turn, a prolonged deviation of headline inflation from the target could push inflation expectations upward. In addition, amid ongoing global developments, changes in commodity prices on international markets remain an important factor. Especially in the event of heightened geopolitical tensions, oil price dynamics are expected to be higher than in the central scenario, which would also transmit to the domestic market. Greater-than-expected economic fragmentation also remains an inflationary risk, as it could negatively affect supply chains and raise global inflation. The materialization of these risks would require a tightening of the monetary policy rate.

On the other hand, the MPC also considered a low-inflation risk scenario, under which fundamental processes would require a lower path for the monetary policy rate than envisaged in the central scenario. In particular, current trends in the domestic labor market are exerting downward pressure on prices, strengthening the likelihood of a low-inflation scenario. At the same time, a prolonged weak position of the U.S. dollar, together with declining food prices on international markets, would reduce imported inflation and exert downward pressure on overall inflation.

Following macroeconomic analysis and consideration of the above scenarios, the MPC deemed it optimal to maintain a moderately tight monetary policy stance and left the monetary policy rate unchanged at 8 percent. Future changes to the monetary policy rate will depend on updated data and the realization of risks. In line with the central scenario, only after the current one-off factors fade and inflation approaches the target level will the National Bank continue normalizing monetary policy. However, if inflation remains above the target for a prolonged period due to various one-off factors, the MPC is prepared to maintain a tight stance for longer than expected and, if necessary, tighten further.

The National Bank of Georgia will use all available instruments to maintain price stability, which means keeping the overall price level increase close to 3 percent over the medium term.

The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee will be held on February 11, 2026,” the statement reads.