Georgia’s demography, unfortunately, grows worse by the year. Due to difficult economic conditions and an unstable political climate, the country’s birth rate has dropped to an almost critical level, while the mortality rate has increased. If 94,000 babies were born in Georgia every year in the 1980s, now this amount is reduced almost by half. This means that less children are born than is necessary to fully replace their parents’ generation. Emigration has also become quite intensive, with more than a million people leaving the country in last two decades. As a result of all this, the amount of young people in the Georgian population is shrinking, while the amount of elderly grows. This is called demographic aging. This process has become very visible as of late. Things have become so bad that even if economic conditions are significantly improved, the chances of birth and mortality rates’ normalization in the near future are slim.

According to official data, Georgia was at its peak birth rate in 1961, when 104,000 babies were born. Moreover, the average birthrate in years 1960-1990 was 93,000 babies per year. Also, Georgia’s population was most numerous in 1989-1992, comprising 5,400,000. But from this point forward, the population started dwindling, slowly but surely. A sharp birth rate drop marked the year 1992, and emigration also contributed to the demographic decline – in the 1990s, approximately 1.5 million people left the country. In 2001-2015, a total of 630,000 babies were born in Georgia and 200,000 more to Georgians living abroad.

The UN, due to keeping an eye on world’s population dynamics, is also concerned about the alarming demographic shifts in Georgia. According to their research, the Georgian population will shrink by 12.9 percent by 2050. In 2030, it will comprise approximately 3,868,000, in 2050 it will be 3,483,000, and in 2100 it will comprise only 2,438,000. As for the average age of Georgians, UN data says that in 1950 it was 27.3 years. In 1980 it increased to 29.1 years, today it is 37.5. In 2030 it will be 42. By 2050 it will become 45, and by 2100 – 48.5 years.

Another piece of UN research shows us the amount of children per woman in various periods. According to it, in years 1975-1980, a woman in Georgia had 2.39 children on average, in 1990-1995 – 2.05, in 2005-2010 – 1.80, while for 2010-2015 the figure is 1.81.

As for Georgians’ average lifespan, in 1990-1995 it was 70.1 years on average, in 2005-2010 it became 73.7 and in 2010-2015 – 74.6 years.

Our authorities know all too well that in order to rectify the demographic situation, they need to implement special and urgent measures. On one hand, they need the mobilization of necessary material and financial resources, and on the other, fast and intensive promotion of fertility among the population. However, we have yet to see any effective governmental policies in this regard, while time doesn’t wait for anyone and Georgia remains on the list of the most demographically unpromising countries.

Author: Rusudan Shelia