“I am certain that it is already clear to Georgian Dream what the Kremlin is demanding of it. In my view, this is blackmail by Russia, intended to demonstrate that it can completely destabilize Georgia’s economy. It is clear that this move was not made without reason; the two sides are failing to reach an agreement on something. It appears that Georgian Dream is dragging its feet and failing to fulfill certain demands,” Giorgi Rukhadze, founder of the Strategic Analysis Center, said while discussing Russia’s introduction of temporary import restrictions on products from several Georgian companies on PalitraNews’ Resume program.

According to Rukhadze, the possible reasons behind Russia’s pressure include the so-called “Putin corridor,” a proposed railway connection to Armenia via occupied Abkhazia. Another possibility, he said, is Moscow’s demand that Tbilisi sign non-aggression agreements with Sokhumi and Tskhinvali.

“I think all of this is unfolding logically. You know the saying, ‘Appetite comes with eating.’ Russia has secured all the concessions that Georgian Dream could make on the Western front. The fact is that Georgia’s accession to NATO and the European Union is no longer being discussed at all. Georgia’s de facto government has the worst relations with the European Union that I can remember any Georgian government having in the country’s modern history, which directly serves Russia’s interests. Moscow has therefore achieved its objective.

“Moscow has also achieved its goal of making Georgia more dependent on the Russian economy. Fifteen years ago, Georgia was minimally dependent on Russia in terms of energy and exports. Today, that dependence has increased considerably, and Moscow is now trying to demonstrate this. It wants to signal to Georgian Dream that it has no other options, that it no longer has partners in the West, and that Georgia is economically and energetically dependent on Russia. This is essentially an experiment to show, on a limited scale, what Moscow is capable of doing.

“I am certain that it is already clear to Georgian Dream what the Kremlin is demanding. In my view, this is Russian blackmail intended to show that Moscow can completely destabilize Georgia’s economy. It is clear that this move was not made without reason; the two sides are failing to agree on something. It appears that Georgian Dream is dragging its feet and failing to fulfill certain demands.

“What could those demands be? One possibility is the railway issue, the so-called Putin corridor—a railway from Russia to Armenia via Abkhazia. It could also be related to the Geneva International Discussions, which will take place in a month. It is nothing new that the Russian side wants Tbilisi to sign non-aggression agreements with Sokhumi and Tskhinvali and begin the so-called demarcation of borders. These demands are not new, but the pressure is increasing. The more vulnerable and weak Georgia’s de facto government becomes, the more influence Moscow believes it can exert.

“Of course, everything we are discussing now is hypothetical. More information is needed to confirm these assumptions, but I find it difficult to imagine what else could be behind these developments,” Rukhadze said.