In the eastern regions of Ukraine, Russia has been guided precisely by the same scheme it employed in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria -- Pavel Felgengauer
InterPressNews sat down with Russian military expert, Pavel Felgengauer, to discuss the present situation in the eastern region of Ukraine.
-- After Mr. Poroshenko refused to terminate the anti-terrorist operation in Ukraine’s eastern regions, Ukraine’s army took over the cities of Slaviansk and Krematorsk. Ukrainian media reports that the separatist groups are withdrawing from the region and heading to Russia. What is happening in the eastern regions of Ukraine today and how would you assess the current goings-on in the districts of Donetsk and Luhansk?
- It has always been clear that the present developments would take place in this country; however, today it’s absolutely obvious that Ukraine’s law-enforcement agencies abound with groups of volunteers that do not really abide by one another’s instructions; however, today from a military point of view, Ukraine’s army is far more powerful than the separatist units.
Nowadays, Ukraine’s armed forces are far from being perfect, neither are they provided with all the necessary equipment and ammunition, however, the actual fact is they are in better shape than those military units that have enjoyed the Russians’ back-up. Today Ukraine’s forces really are not a far cry from the “Mkhedrioni's” troops of Abkhazia; clearly though, from a military point of view, they are a more advantageous force than the aforementioned military units. They have already exercised their management on the cities of Slaviansk and Krematorsk.
The Ukrainian military forces will obviously get the better of the separatists; however, they are not so powerful to defeat these forces only in 2 or 3 days. That is the reason why today it is less expected that they will succeed in exerting their control on Donetsk and Luhansk in the short run. If the Ukrainians still dare to take these steps, they will have to suffer a massive backlash from Russia that is strongly expected to overrun Ukraine on this occasion, and, obviously, this move from Russia will bring nothing good to this nation. Thus, in the present state of play, I don’t think that Kiev will seek to institute control on Donetsk and Luhansk. In my mind, against this backdrop, they will attempt to reach a kind of temporary armistice with Russia, as it happened in the case of Abkhazia in bygone days.
As Russian political expert Belkovsk claims, Putin has always sought to induce President Obama and the West to hold negotiations with regard Ukraine with him personally. Does the allegation from this expert ring true?
Mr. Belkovsk has proclaimed extremely interesting opinions, I don’t often share these opinions but I mainly center on the two countries military capabilities, while from the strategic point of view the present status quo strongly suggest that one problem lies in the other. As I have already mentioned, militarily the separatists do lag behind the Ukrainians that have adopted trenchant methods to boost their effectiveness and refine their fighting tactics in an immensely short period of time, and in this way they made the impossible possible. For more clarity, once again I repeat -- Ukrainian servicemen are weaker than the Russian soldiers. In its turn, militarily, economically and financially, Russia is not on par with the U.S. That is why the prospect of stiffening the economic sanctions by the USA scares the Russian leader. Hence, the present status quo strongly suggests that a temporary truce that will result in freezing the conflict serves everyone’s interests today. On this occasion, more opportunities to realize its objectives would fall into Russia’s hands. And today the Russian leader’s core aim is to keep Ukraine under his dominance to block it from joining NATO and for this purpose to facilitate the formation of a kind of enclave within Ukraine which the separatists will bring under their thumb.
- In the present state of affairs it would be immensely interesting to know what made Russia refuse to expand its military presence in the so-called MalaRussia via forceful measures. If we believe Evgeni Primakovsk, who is dubbed as the Patriarch of Russia’s Foreign policy, the Kremlin took this step for one reason only -- because of its reluctance to even more decay relations with the West that would result in additional economic sanctions against it. In the words of Mr. Primakovsk, this decision from the Russian strongman was also fueled with the intention to pursue the chosen policy and to even more aggravate the situation between the western countries. Moreover, if Russia used its military forces against Ukraine to the fullest, the West would be strongly expected to intervene militarily in Ukraine’s affairs. Does the aforementioned presumption seem trustworthy?
--It does, for sure. The fact that separatists have still remained in the eastern regions of Ukraine is certainly inauspicious for Kiev. Mr. Poroshenko as well as others do comprehend that they will run incredible risks by leaving the present situation unattended. Precisely, because of this reason, the Ukrainians do take extremely well gauged steps today -- they do put pressure on the separatists, however, they are well aware of the fact that the time to annihilate them has not come yet.
From my viewpoint, Kiev is playing for time now; they need around 6 months to set everything in order in their military units and then get down to translating its intensions into actions without even giving Russia time to react to its taken steps. As for Russia, the frozen conflict would undoubtedly be beneficial for it. Moscow hopes that from January, Ukraine will be caught in the grips of economic crises that will instantly spark a political crisis. And Russia is really unlikely to spare efforts to create its desired future for Ukraine.
- As Russian expert, Feodor Lukianov, alleges, Russia will make redoubled efforts to retain its influence on the Ukrainian Government and maintain dominance on the eastern regions of Ukraine. Is Russia likely to succeed in materializing its well laid plans in terms of the eastern regions of Ukraine? Will Kiev express readiness to negotiate with Medvechuk who hobnobs with Putin and who presided over the Yanukovichs administration? Does the latter stand a chance to perch on the post the Governor of the Donetsk district?
- Kiev will never appoint Medvechuk as Governor. As far as I can see, they are freezing a conflict in the eastern regions of Ukraine now. Anyway, today Putin is, by all odds, trying to attain this goal; otherwise, why launch talks regarding a ceasefire and the need for negotiations? Putin longs to create almost the similar picture as it is in the Transnistria, where talks, as in Kharabagh, have been underway for more than 20 years. This will enable the Russian statesman to apply pressure on Kiev and constantly blackmail it by permanently menacing that the Kremlin will recognize the independence of self-declared regions of Donetsk and Luhansk like it did with the conclave territories of Georgia. Today, Russia is claiming its ownership only on 30 per cent of the so-called Malorussia (Little Russia), only on the Donetsk and Luhansk districts. Russia plans to get hold of the two districts when the economic crisis erupts in Ukraine, and the outraged mob will pour out onto the streets.
As far as I can see, at this given stage both Putin and Poroshenko aim to halt a conflict. The Ukrainian side is faced with military problems -- so far it has been unclear which regions are under its control in this area. As for the Russian side, it has launched active talks regarding the necessity of creating an independent security zones and the need of deploying peacekeeping forces there. Thus, both regions are even more independent protagonists in this game as it can be thought at first sight, and most interestingly, these regions refuse to obey each other. The separatists groups are strongly determined to continue the war by still hoping that Moscow will meddle in this process one day.
At this point, both the Russian and Ukrainian top officials support the decision for a ceasefire. Now Russia is not expected to intrude on Ukraine, however, August, the most suitable month for launching military operations, is also near.
--Some Russian experts think that today Putin is mulling over how to overcome the present impasse. Its long-cherished dream of creating a powerhouse Eurasian Union has been undermined. Plus, the Russian leader has failed to restore his dominance on Ukraine and Malorussia. Against this background, can we deduce that Russia is expected to kick-off a large-scale operation against Ukraine?
-- Nothing is excluded; however, I cannot say for certain that Putin desires to accomplish this task. He does not view himself as a defeated force and hopes that the discrepancy with regard to the issue of Ukraine will even more exacerbate soon. As it appears, Russia has inserted a number of its agents in Moscow, Ukraine, Germany as well as the different western states. Freezing the conflict truly plays into the hands of Russia today. Putin seems to have adapted himself to the fact that the separatists have suffered defeat in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk; however, the complete defeat of the separatists does not really suit him today. Precisely this is the reason why, Russia strains to temporarily suspend hostilities with Ukraine. This country will undoubtedly use this temporary truce to its own advantage and will provide the separatists with due ammunition… Russia is empowering the separatists for one purpose only – it longs to maintain the military forces that will be on par with Kiev’s troops. In the eastern regions of Ukraine, Russia has been guided precisely by the same scheme it employed in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria. Russia has not proposed amendments to its tactics; however, Ukrainians are taking more effective measures to avoid Russia’s aggression than Georgians took in the case of Abkhazia. The Ukrainian people have quadrupled efforts to strengthen their military units; much more is still left to be done though.
-- If we believe Russian journalist, Evgeni Kisilov, who now resides in Russia, Russia’s taken steps in Donetsk and Luhansk will have a boomerang effect on it. Do you share this opinion?
- The Russian people’s rather aggressive stance makes me share this position. As the people claim, they are ready to level Kiev to the ground with their tanks. As public opinion polls have it, half of the Russian population is for attacking Kiev, however, if the Ukrainian soldiers give a good account of themselves, Russia will find it cumbersome to seize control of the Donetsk and Luhansk, and apparently, the collapse of two cities will negatively affect the Russian people’s disposition.Hypothetically, the future developments in our day-to-day Ukraine will not be a far cry from the events unfolded in the Ukraine of Serbs. In 1992-93 the Croatians were involved in a tooth and nail battle against the Serbs. That peace reigned here till 1995. During this period of time the Croatians prepared for the future attack, and in the wake of this, they dealt such a fatal blow to their enemies that everything ended in the blink of an eye… And President Poroshenko’s talks regarding the necessity of passing military reforms make me think that he plans to take a page out of his Croatian counterpart’s book. Whether this way or that, the actual fact is that the people have already displayed an overarching desire to fight against their foes.
- The International Civil Aviation Organization has categorically rejected the reports which have been spread widely through Russia and which said that this organization allowed the Russian leader to carry out air flights in Crimea. In your opinion to what may point the firm policy of the ICAO in terms of Russian and Crimea?
-- The problems linked to Crimea are incrementally emerging. Ukraine is taking immensely heedful steps in terms of Crimea today. Sooner or later, they will adopt the same posture with regard to Crimea’s air space, they have adopted in relation to the airport of Armenia. ICAO has banned the acting aviation companies to use the Babushera airport to carry out civil flights. And the International Community is strongly expected to isolate Ukraine from the outer world. Once Abkhazia was a prosperous densely populated region; it was leveled to the ground later though; and as the present status quo strongly suggests, Crimea will share its fate soon.
As for the decision from ICAO, it clearly points to the fact that this organization does not recognize Crimea’s annexation by Russia.
-The Russian authorities have decided to rebuild the impaired bridge between Russia and Crimea. However, the issue of Crimea’s Tatars has remained to be problematic so far. The Crimean Tatars have turned downed Russian citizenship. Moreover, they are strongly determined to liberate the peninsula from the occupants...
--It’s without question that talks regarding the construction of the bridge are nothing more than that and they are not likely to be translated into a deed… As for the Crimean Tatars and Crimea itself, the situation here is likely to even more aggravate. In autumn, the Crimean people are expected to face extremely terrible economic fallouts. Some people here think that all their troubles will end if they merge with Russia. This is unlikely to happen though. The economic background in Crimea is immensely dark today, and it stands a really strong chance to become even darker in the short run. On top of this, the flames of public protest may also be fanned in Crime soon.
-- As it seems, Ukraine will lie in the center of Russia’s politics in the future too …
- Surely this will be so. Everyone knows that all issues related to Ukraine are paramount for Russia, which lacks leverages to occupy Kiev and all of Ukraine. Thus, Russia will seek to escalate tensions in Ukraine and will attempt to put the country out of order. However, Ukraine is a huge state and to subjugate it is not really a piece of cake.
Russia deployed 140 thousand servicemen in Chechnya. As for Ukraine, it will have to amass at least half a million of its soldiers along Ukraine’s borders to carry out military action here. And today it’s obvious that Russia will never manage to institute its dominance on all of Ukraine.
Against this background, the West will keep providing Ukraine with its backing. Putin knows this perfectly well; precisely this is the reason why he tried to extend the military presence here in April, when Ukraine was feeble and enervated. However, today this country is relatively strong and it is likely to grab more and more power with time.
Nevertheless, I still find it difficult to predict whether or not Putin will decide to reinvigorate military operations in Ukraine; however, it’s clear that Russia will have to pay a big price for this decision. This is the reason why at this point in time the Russian leader has totally concentrated on the temporary truce with Ukraine.
Koba Bendeliani
InterPressNews
