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InterPressnews sat down with an associate professor of Tbilisi state University, Korneli Kakachia, to discuss acute issues of Georgia’s internal and external policy.

- Russia has subjected Ukraine to direct military aggression. It’s without question that Ukraine will fail to repel Russia’s aggression counting on its forces only. It’s also a fact that at this point in time, the West only discusses the current developments in Ukraine. As for Russia, it tries to gobble up as many Ukrainian territories as possible before the NATO Wales Summit. How would you gauge the present situation in Ukraine and the reaction from the International Community to Russia’s taken steps?

- As a number of the western analysts claim, believe it or not, Kiev has gained a victory at the initial stage of a non-proclaimed war that is a hybrid war launched by Russia. However, as soon as Russia came to its senses and realized that by pursuing its chosen course it was inapt to defeat Ukraine’s government, in order not to lose the war, it set to sending its military subunits to Ukraine. This allegation really rings true and a great deal of informative sources has corroborated them.

I do share the opinion as per which Ukraine will find it cumbersome to win this war alone. This issue is paramount not only for Ukraine but also for Georgia as well as the entire Europe.

My view is, Putin has endeavored to achieve several goals in Ukraine. Firstly, it has tried to federalize this country; his ultimate objective is not really to preside over the eastern regions of Ukraine and Crimea. Putin is pursuing an ambitious policy of exercising control on the whole post-Soviet space. Now he aims at materializing his plans with regard to Ukraine which is why he is still pursuing this aggressive policy.

However, it is also not excluded that the Russian strongman has outlined different scenarios; if you keep a close eye on the Russian high officials and carefully listen to their statements, you will realize that they are issuing contradictory statements. To back up this allegation, we can bring an example of the so-called Little Russia – sometimes Putin says that Kiev must think regarding giving these territories with its institutions a status of state, however, then out of the blue he, as a rule, renounces these statements. Thus, we are left with an impression that the Russian leader himself cannot clearly see the future of these regions. The Kremlin simply tries to block Ukraine from forming an independent state and becoming a full member of the western institutions.

- The statements from Andrei Purgin, Vice-Premier of the so called Republic of Donetsk as well as those of the Chairman of the so-called Supreme Council of Luhanks, Alexei Kariakin, who allege that the two republics are ready to remain the integral constituents of Ukraine if their requirements are met do bolster up your announcement. However, a telephone conversation between the Russian strongmen and Jose Manuel Barroso, which is presented in the Italian paper, “La Republika” and in which Putin claims that he can take over Ukraine in two weeks time if he wishes so, is also worth paying attention to. In light of Russia’s ambitious plans and the West’s lax position with regard to Ukraine, what can happen in this direction in the future?

- Dynamics of the conflict are in a state of flux at this time. It is immensely difficult to predict what will happen in the future. If we get down to analyzing the two incidents you have just brought up, we will automatically draw a conclusion as per which Russia has endeavored to force Kiev’s Government to get involved in the negotiations with the separatist leadership of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia has followed this scenario in Abkhazia as well as in South Ossetia and Moldova. The powers that be in the Kremlin are very well aware of the fact that Poroshenko’s Government will find it difficult to counter a backlash from Russia as well as to remain at the helm of the state. Kiev knows this perfectly well. This is the reason why Ukraine’s ex-President Kuchma participates in the meeting of Minsk. Despite the fact that the delegation of official Kiev is present at the same meeting, as it appears, Kiev is not interested in building relations with the separatists. It’s obvious that Kiev simply does not have the slightest desire to swallow the evil bait Moscow has cast.

As for Putin’s announcement in his telephone conversation with Barosso, as it seems, each and every representative of the West has already seen through to Putin’s vicious intensions. But one important question pops up here: Is the West ready to pay the price to delimit Russia’s ambitions? Now this acute issue is really of paramount significance.

- While the West is racking their brains on what kind of steps must be taken to deter Russia’s aggression, we are faced with the reality which is not favorable for Ukraine at all – it seems that Russia (and not Ukraine) is a country that presides over Donetsk and Luhanks. The West’s inaptitude to pursue a trenchant policy against the aggressor has left us with an impression that behind the scene of the international arena Munisch-1938 and Ialta-1944 has already been held again. However, core protagonists of the world are trying to avoid talks regarding this issue. Do you share this position?

-- It’s without question that the West lacks truly powerhouse leaders; this is the reality that is sorely felt today. The economic relations between Russia and a slew of the European states have pushed us to adopt the stance we have already adopted with regard to this subject. The issue of why the West has failed to take a strong stand against Russia and curb its aggression is also acute today. The decisions made by the West are only a response to the steps from Russia. Hence, the West is always a step behind Russia. However, while discussing this matter, it is also worth taking into account that the EU involves a number of democratic states, it is not a single entity and, thus, it needs a while to make paramount decisions. As for Russia, is an authoritarian country run by an autocratic leader and each decision is made by this man personally. This and only this man makes decisions on the spur of the moment and, thus, the West always lags behind this country when it comes to this matter.

As for a parallel drawn between this epoch and the 1940s, this is a really logical move. Due to its inaptitude to take effective measures, the West has left nothing but to chase Machiavelli’s principles that involves pursuing double-standards in practice. An extremely good example to this is Germany’s policy in reference to Ukraine. This country has refused to provide the latter with arms; however, it has given a helping hand to the Kurtz and has supplied them with due ammunition.

- A statement from a really prominent American political figure, Zbignev Brezinski, has been spread via internet. The aforementioned politician presumes that a new world order will be established soon. As he claims, “an era of an unprecedented instability has already come. And now it will be up to China and the US to establish a new world order.” In the words of Brezinski, “China is not as extreme and as improvident as Russia and it will undoubtedly get involved in cooperation with the West.” In your mind, will China accept a proposal from Washington to enervate and finally dismantle Russia through economic sanctions?

- For more than 10 long years, America has discussed this issue. As a matter of fact, precisely this was the reason why America turned its gaze from the post-Soviet space and focused its attention on south-east Asia and China. However, as the current events demonstrate, this decision was not quite right.

As for the Russia-China and the US-China relations, they both are quite inconsistent. China attempts to introduce its own game rules and play an independent game. The economies of the US and China are rather interdependent. This is so in spite of the fact that their views are entirely different with respect to a great deal of issues and very often they counter each other.

Now let’s move on to the relations between Russia and China. This issue is also rather perplexing. At first sight, China and Russia cooperate when it comes to strategic issues. Although I am not quite sure that the west will succeed in siding with China and pitting it against Russia. Against the present background, Beijing thinks that nothing on earth threatens its national interests and is trying to pose as a “sleeping tiger” which, unlike Russia, intends to reinforce its hegemony thanks to its booming economy.

-As NATO General Secretary Anders Fogh Rasmussen announced, a NATO military training center may be set up in Georgia. Thus, they are supposed to form a special mission that will assist the Defense Ministry in passing certain reforms and boosting the country’s defense system. After the NATO Wales summit, the U.S. Defense Secretary may also visit Georgia. Does this give us a foundation to surmise that NATO and the US are taking all these measures to avoid the events which Ukraine has already passed through because of Russia?

-- If we summarize all these facts, we will deduce that Georgia is moving in the right direction. We may not be extremely content with the decisions made by NATO but its move to establish this center in Georgia clearly points to the fact that NATO has realized that Russia’s voracious imperialistic appetite cannot be sated so easily. NATO has raised strategic initiations and has set to founding strategic strongholds in the region where the tensions can become high soon. And all this is really auspicious for us; however, this is not enough to ensure Georgia’s safety at this point in time. Before they open the door of alliance to us via MAP, our security situation will remain fragile.

- President Margvelashvili hopes that at the NATO Wales Summit, Georgia and Ukraine will be in one league. How big is the possibility that this will be actually so?

-This is more of a wish than reality. Despite the fact that the Georgian authorities have been activated with regard to Ukraine, they have failed to form a common strategic vision. Georgia has not pursued a coordinated policy in reference to this country so far; how can they be in one league at the Wales Summit against the given background? In addition, Ukraine has set to reconsidering its status only now and, thus, it will take this country longer to join the alliance than Georgia.

- A new political season has already come in Georgia like a number of countries. In your mind, what kind of an impact Ukraine’s present developments will have on Georgia?

- Now everything is depended on the final outcome of Ukraine’s conflict. God save us but if this conflict heats up and ends according to Russia’s scenario, the political landscape in Georgia can also change. Our country has always been fraught with the pro-Russian parties but if Russia succeeds in realizing its endgame in Ukraine, they will obviously start taking active steps in Georgia’s political arena. Their key goal will be to make concessions with Russia and pursue its interests here.

- A new rift has allegedly been incited between the President and the PM, and this issue has recently become a topic of ongoing discussions. However, as the President claims, they are simply trying to form the political reality with our constitution. Do you agree with this allegation?

- I think that the President is not totally frank when it comes to this issue. The public hoped that the two high officials have not actually been involved in political spats and tit-for-tats; however, the reality speaks of the opposite. The statements from the Foreign Minister have immensely withered the country’s reputation. These endless tit-for-tats became ridiculous long ago.

This never ending conflict pushes our society to suspect that some powers here are trying to discredit the institution of president despite the fact that the blue print document that is the constitution clearly says that the President and only the President represents the country on the international stage. I cannot go into details; however, the actual fact is that this petty bickering between the High Executive and the Head of our Government is nothing good for our country and damages reputation in the international scene.

Koba Bendeliani

InterPressNews