Russia assesses its chances of success in the South Caucasus

During an interview with Denis Dvornikov a member of Russia’s Public Chamber, InterPressNews discussed causes and outcomes of the Russian president’s visit to Abkhazia, the possible measures that Russia may take if a military action in Syria is launched and other acute matters.

- Mr. Dennis how would you assess the visit of Russia’s president to Abkhazia especially when the government of Georgia expresses readiness to improve Russia-Georgia relations. Particularly what massage is Putin trying to convey to Tbilisi, Washington and Brussels?

- I do not think that by this visit, Putin aimed at showing or proving something to anyone. I do not consider that the goal of this visit is to convey any kind of massage to any of those countries. I would state that at their meeting Putin and the Head of Abkhazia simply discussed specific not publicly displayed issues.

Unfortunately, today Russia pursues an inconsistent foreign policy. Obviously, the most desirable outcome for Russia is to restore the previous relationship with Georgia as well as to create a peaceful atmosphere between the people of Abkhazia, Georgia and South Ossetia.

- some Georgian experts consider that Putin’s visit in Abkhazia was a response to Obama’s refusal to meet him in Moscow. From this it follows that Putin tried to irritate Washington by using Georgia again.

-To tell the truth, if your statement corresponded with reality, Putin’s so called response would be proved to be illogical. His visit in Abkhazia does not really capture world attention. From my point of view, Russia has more topical problems to tackle. The issue of Abkhazia is less important for this country.

- As you stated, the core subject which, Putin and Anakvab discussed within the visit was their personal relationship. Can you specify what makes you think that personal relationships may have been a key subject of discussion?

We can only assume this. I can say nothing for sure. They might have also discussed financial or other types of relationships. Personally I hope that at this meeting Putin raised the matter of protecting the rights of the Russian people.

- The Ukraine has once and for all turned down the possibility of integrating within Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union. As Russia’s Prime-minister Igor Shuvalov announced “there is no point in holding negotiations” on this topic. What do you think has Russia finally accepted the prospect of concluding the agreement between EU and the Ukraine or is there still any danger impeding Kiev from the part of Russia?

-Russia has already taken measures against the Ukraine, namely, it has already banned exporting the Ukraine’s production on Russia’s market.

However, I fear that Russia has not taken the right step in terms of Ukraine. This decision of Russia will only spoil our future relationships and will bring no positive result for our people.

- So, it’s entirely clear that Russia is trying to severely punish the Ukraine, however as some experts suggest, the authorities of the Ukraine may also take relevant measures against the Russian fleet which is now dispatched in Crimea. What complications may Russia encounter in this regard?

- It is not absolutely excluded that Russia’s fleet may sustain severe harm. Other decisions may also be made in this direction. The authorities of Ukraine may issue a decree on declining the status of the Russian language in the east regions of Ukraine.

But I am still sure that the conflict will not be exacerbated to such a great extent. The existing tension must wind down first. However, I also do not rule out that Russia may also try some secret expedients to somehow enroll the Ukraine within the Customs Union. No one knows what will happen beforehand.

- After the Ukraine had given the advantage to EU over Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Custom Union, will Kremlin drop the idea of creating Eurasian Union?

-I would like to underscore that the idea of Eurasian Union has not been formulated yet. That is why it is beyond my understanding precisely what Russia is offering to its political partners for the present moment. People use the terms “European Union” and “European Space” very often; however, it is absolutely vague what they imply in them.

Eurasian union never will be a model of Soviet Union. No one knows what objects European Union has set to itself and it is truly a serious problem.

Nobody doubts that military operations in Syria will be launched. We would like to learn what measures will Russia take after these operations are launched in this country? As the Foreign Minister of Russia, Lavrov states “It is not in Russia’s plans to announce a war” but . . .

Luckily or unluckily, Russia has absolutely no military potential in the region. Ordinary people do not realize that events unfolding in Syria are alarming. They hope that people will not die but unfortunately, they are bitterly mistaken.

-Do you think that having made a decision to militarily intervene in Syria’s affairs, Russia will not do the same in regard of South Caucasus?

Nothing is excluded. Russia may also easily launch military operations against South Caucasus.

After president Putin’s visit in Azerbaijan how would you evaluate Russia’s chosen political course in the South Caucasus?

- The politics which Russia pursues in the South Caucasus is weird and obscure at the same time. I have the impression that in the South Caucasus Russia is only assessing its chances of success. Due to the fact that at Vilnius Summit, with the Ukraine and Russia, Armenia also intends to sign an agreement on becoming an EU associate member , the relationships between Russia and Armenia have deteriorated.

-After all this how would you assess the future prospects of Russia-Georgian relations?

-Regardless everything I am an optimist. We must restore our relations. The core precondition of restoring positive relations between us is the reconciliation of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Georgia. Precisely this is the bulwark of peace and Russia can play a significant role in this regard.

And do you assume that Russia will direct its efforts in favor of Georgia while it has always turned a deaf ear and blind eye to our interests and requirements. Do you think that Russia will really endeavor to improve Georgia-Abkhazia and South Ossetia relations?

All the events that are now unfolding in the republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are visible testimony that Russia really wants to restore positive relations with Georgia. I, on my part, will do everything in my power to begin a dialogue with Georgia. Personally I think that Georgia must restore its territorial integrity. This is right and acceptable for everyone.