Putin has not backed down; he does not intend to make concessions with regard to Ukraine and Georgia

InterPressNews sat down with Sergey Aleksashenko, a renowned Russian expert of Economy, Director of Microeconomic Research Center of Moscow’s Higher school of Economics, to discuss the relations established between Russia and Georgia after the latter reaches the landmark accord with Europe.

- How would you assess the present status quo in the international arena after Ukraine’s developments? In what manner have the dramatic events of Ukraine influenced the post-Soviet space?

- In my mind, we have already advanced to a new phase in which we will witness a final collapse of post-Soviet space. However, this space was disintegrated long ago. The Baltic States abandoned SU before the fall of the empire. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine followed their lead and incrementally withdrew themselves from this evil space. Azerbaijan has seemed to remain in Russia’s sphere of influence thus far; however, the actual fact is that Baku and the capitals of the former SU states are not stuck to Russia any more. Turkmenistan, for instance, is strongly inclined to develop ties with China and views this state as its key partner. Uzbekistan is also moved by a strong desire to move closer to this mammoth country; the same can be stated regarding Kazakhstan. Thus, the term Post Soviet space has lost its connotation and means absolutely nothing today… As for Ukraine, its latest developments are what have spurred the Ukrainian people to develop an anti-Russian stance.

- From your viewpoint, who compelled Ukraine to make the anti-Russian choice?

 

-- Obviously Russia has pushed it to take this step. Russia’s depredation in Ukraine, the latest events in Kiev and in its eastern regions has made the Ukrainians make the anti-Russian choice. The Kremlin’s developed aggressive policy made the oppressed people to long to stay out of Russia’s reach whatever it takes.

- Rumors are rife that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West have forced the latter to back down. On June 5, Russia’s Foreign Ministry promulgated a statement saying that their aim was not to make the eastern regions of Ukraine surrender after a tense standoff. Although the next day head of the same body, Sergey Lavrov, called for the advocates of Donetsk and Luhansk to give up. Believe it or not, Mr. Lavrov released the very statement after Barack Obama proclaimed his intention on exercising stiffer sanctions against Russia. In your opinion, does the allegation as per which the West’s sanctions against Russia compelled it to propose changes to its plans with respect to Ukraine coincide with the truth?

- I really cannot assert that Putin retreated; in my mind, he has not made a final decision in terms of Ukraine; and even more, I doubt that the Russian strongman intends to back down and drop his plan with regard to Ukraine. The Russian people have literally fallen in love with the phrase – “Crimea is ours”; and against this backdrop, Putin is not likely to cede Crimea by transferring its ownership to Ukraine. It’s without question that the current goings-on in this country suits Russia, which endeavors to keep Ukraine in the state of disarray as longer as possible. That is the reason why I claim that Putin has not backed down; he does not intend to make concessions with regard to Ukraine and Georgia.

Clearly though, the West’s sanctions have vexed Putin; moreover, because of these sanctions, the Russian strongman has boiled over with rage; Despite the fact that the invoked sanctions have not battered Russia’s economy, they have still disparaged Putin for whom this bitter pill is not so easy to swallow… radically different announcements from Russia’s Foreign Ministry are a clear testimony to the fact that Lavrov and other Russian political figures simply followed the Russian Chief Executive’s instructions. Employing similar political maneuvers is simply in Putin’s blood; he systematically searches for the line which is impossible to cross; as it appears, the western politicians cannot get this and they obstinately strive for involving Putin in dialogue; all their attempts to reach this objective have proven to be futile thus far though.

- Recently, Russia’s ex-Finance Minister has declared that the economic sanctions against Russia will result in Russia’s substantially depleted budget that is strongly expected to lose as much as $200 billion. He also corroborated the data from the European Central Bank saying that capital flight from Russia has hit 220bn. And if Putin has truly decided to shrug off this alarming economic loss than we can probably ask what is going on within Russia at this point?

- Allegations saying that these sanctions will throw Russia’s economy off the proverbial cliff are over the top. The Western Banks have recently purchased obligations from Russia’s “Alfa” Bank. Business is imbued with pragmatism and cynicism – Russia has refused to invoke sanctions against the Western Companies. The U.S. and particularly Europe has failed to develop a clear-cut policy on expanding sanction on Russia due to the fact that business interests are involved here. And, thus, in the present state of play, it will not strike me in the slightest if after some time the present sanctions will have fallen into oblivion without driving any kind of change and the necessity of imposing a new set of sanctions on Russia will emerge.

That is why, I do assert that the allegation as per which these sanctions will shatter Russia’s economy is far from the truth. The aforementioned capital flight is simply an obvious repercussion of the reduced investments in Russia’s economy. How can the country’s economy flourish, if investments do not grow here? Russia’s economy is passing though a sticky patch today; however, this must not make us presume that after two years it will be leveled to the ground. Russia’s economy is immensely strong due to its primitiveness. How can a country’s economy that is totally dependent on import be devastated?

- Can Obama’s announcement on expanding sanction’s on certain sectors of Russia’s economy be regarded as realistic? Or can it be viewed as ostensible statement aiming to put pressure on the Kremlin?

- Exactly; this statement is nothing more and nothing less than an attempt to pile pressure on the Kremlin. If Russia’s Vladimir Putin refuses to jump-start a dialogue with Petro Poroshenko by recognizing Ukraine’s new Government as legitimate, the West may follow up its intention to exercise further sanctions against different sectors of Russia’s economy. On the one hand, “we will institute sanctions” and “we may institute sanctions” are two absolutely different things, and on the other hand, the term “start a dialogue” is of multi-meaning on this occasion. It has already hit headlines that Mr. Putin and Poroshenko have engaged in face-to-face talks for 15 minutes in Normandy. So, can we infer that a dialogue between the two top officials has already been kicked-off?

We must include into consideration – Putin is permeated with cynicism. His position is pretty clear – “Simply recognize that Crimea is mine and everything will run smoothly”, says Putin, who is strongly moved to cultivate relations with Ukraine as well as Europe.

- The landmark accord between the EU and Georgia is to be finalized in a couple of weeks. As they claim, Russia’s response on this step from the Georgian Government will not be harsh. Does this allegation ring true?

-- At this point in time, only God knows how Russia will respond to this step from Georgia. The present announcements from the Foreign Ministry are self-contradictory. The Kremlin has viewed Ukraine’s integration within NATO as a huge threat to its security. Russia’s political upper crust is strongly inclined to make decisions relying on the information which they hear though the grapevine; as the information space in which they abide today is artificial to the core.

Putin is boldly certain of the fact that a country is excluded to join the EU if it does not integrate with NATO first. He feared if Russia joined NATO, the NATO ships would dock in Sevastopol, the country of Russia’s naval glory. Today the Russian leader simply lives in a world of phobias and paranoia.

When it comes to Georgia, we face a different situation though. Georgia has turned out lucky enough – It lacks a city like Sevastopol. NATO missiles have already been installed in Turkey which is a stone’s throw from Georgia; and that is the reason why Georgia is not of such great strategic importance for Russia today as Ukraine.

Two weeks ago, Lukashenko expressed his overt dissatisfaction over Georgia’s Defense Minister’s announcement on presumable installation of a NATO anti-missile system in Georgia. Hence, if the Georgian authorities want to remove obstacles from their path to the EU, they must hammer into Putin’s head that the integration within NATO does not fall within their plans. Thus, if you are moved by a desire to enroll yourself within NATO you must prepare to counter Russia’s backlash.

-- Georgia’s Government has never hidden its aspiration to NATO…

- This is a pretty simple issue – today you are faced with two options: either reverse your decision to move closer to NATO and get a warrant of security from Moscow or make it clear that in order to stay out of Russia’s reach, you are ready for anything. It’s your political choice; however, the actual fact is that Putin has never backed down and has never reframed his position on Georgia’s and Ukraine’s integration within NATO.

-- After the latest events of Ukraine how big is the chance that Russia will take military actions in Georgia?

-- All right, let’s assume that in 2008, Russia proclaimed war with Georgia by accident; likewise, let’s suppose that it expanded its military presence in Ukraine unintentionally. If the Russian leader takes this step for the third time, can we again propose that he will do it accidentally? Putin is a dangerous politician who browbeats and intimidates all of Europe today. Putin’s steps are unpredictable; he is a strongman who grapples with the internationally established standards and norms. He is strongly determined to rethink and reframe all existing international principles and jeopardize world stability. Are you sure that he will not launch WW III? Only God knows what kind of steps this man will take in the future.

- In what manner will Georgia’s move to sign the EU accord affect the cultivated trade and economic relations between the two countries?

- If after this, Georgia completes a pact with NATO, Russian-Georgian relations will be ruffled. If Georgia negotiates with Russia and convinces it that it’s is not integrating with NATO then the associated membership with the EU will not pose you any problems. Otherwise, the economic and trade backlash from Russia will be inevitable; moreover, the Kremlin may also decide to break all ties with your country.

For Vladimir Putin the enlargement of NATO is such a huge catastrophe just as the fall of the Soviet Union was. It contradicts with his worldview and ideology and thus he will spare nothing to prevent this from happening.

- In your opinion, has official Tbilisi passed up the Kremlin’s messages as something unimportant or has not received them thus far?

- Frankly speaking, I am clueless regarding the fact of how these messages are comprehended by your authorities with which I have no ties at all. As I know, your Defense Minister has directly announced that Georgia will join NATO; thus, your Government has either not received the Kremlin’s message yet or has simply disregarded it. Whether this way or that, one thing is clear, if Georgia does not drop its plan to move closer to NATO, Russian-Georgia relations will undoubtedly deteriorate.

- Some Russian experts allege that if Georgia finds its niche in EU, in our country, Russian businessman will lay the foundation for enterprises the production of which will be totally oriented on the European market. Is this supposition close to the truth?

-- Putin leads each and every Russian businessman by the nose; thus, if he forbids them to finance enterprises in Georgia none of them will enter your country. Moreover, those businessmen who are here today will instantly depart to Russia, where business is totally stripped of its rights and is dependent on the Government.

- After the Ukraine developments, the world economy was seriously shaken. What could you say regarding this issue?

- At this point in time, they are searching for the ways to get the world economy back to its feet. Any kind of crises can be viewed as an automatic response to loss of balance. The last crisis was really alarming; it has really rocked the world economy. China’s cumulatively developing economy has lured workers from developed countries and has put unremitting pressure on them. Today the world economy is in desperate need of finding a new form of equilibrium. After the crises, the world economy has not been healed yet and in what manner will they provide the diseased economy with a remedy has remained unclear thus far.

-- Russia has countered the entire world; however, can its economy compete with the economy of the powerhouse states around the globe?

- Russia’s economy cannot compensate for that of the West; precisely that is the reason why, Putin does want to contend against the West to which it appeals to simply forget Crimea, roll out sanctions and all troubles will be gone. The Russian strongman does not aim to aggravate economic relations either with the West or Europe. However, he is deeply convinced that the West is fighting against its spiritual and patriotic values. At this point in time, Putin is raising horns and is immensely proud of the fact that “Crimea is theirs”. However if the West refuses to drop its intension to stiffen sanctions against Russia, the Russian leader is ready to pay this price for Crimea.

-- If Putin keeps chasing his policy, how long will he stay in power?

- His legitimate rule can last 10 more years until the presidential elections of 2024.Russia has a really unique form of statehood – an autocratic leader, who can be called an authoritarian monarch, is a true center of power here. What can be said regarding absolute monarchies or monarchs? The world history garners the names of some monarchs who at least loved their families. As for Putin, he does not even have a family and is surrounded with a small number of people.

- Rumors float round that Ukraine’s developments incited a rift between the members of the Russian political elite …

- Confrontations really have not occurred in Russia’s political upper crust where everyone stands in awe and knows perfectly well that a politician in whom Putin will see his political adversary is doomed to suffer really serious problems.

- Thus, from your words, can we conclude that Russia as well as its neighboring states will have to weather a rough patch in the future?

--All these countries -- and particularly Russia -- will definitely have to go through hard times.

Koba Bendeliani

InterPressNews