The possible collapse of the Coalition can easily stop us in our tracks and if this happens, the state could even lose its ability to make political decisions – Ramaz Sakvarelidze

 

InterPressNews discussed the acute issues of Georgia’s external and internal policy with political expert and psychologist Ramaz Sakvarelidze.

--The issue of Georgia’s breakaway region of Abkhazia has caused Premier Gharibashvili to enter the President’s Chancellery, which he has held back from doing for well-known reasons. What kind of a comment could you release regarding the issue, at what can the Premier’s move point? And in your opinion, how effective can Georgia’s response to Russia’s determination to legally annex Abkhazia be?

--First of all, I want to underscore that it does not matter for what purpose they called the security council session , the Prime Minister would attended it anyway as “the rivalry for functions” between the two high officials has come to an end. I think that today, both of them will more or less try to make state institutions function normally. 

--As for the response from official Tbilisi to Russia’s decision to secede Abkhazia from Georgia, it involves 2 components: 1. “aggressive diplomacy” of Mr. Alasania and 2. the Prime Minister’s really interesting proposal to the Abkhazian people to enjoy their autonomy within Georgia’s borders. In my opinion, this is a preparatory phase for a dialogue with Abkhazia’s De-facto Government.  

Some other versions also circulate today though. We have come across several interesting versions in your materials too (Levan Alexidze’s and Gia Khubua’s versions are meant)… Abkhazians claim that they are moved with a really strong desire to maintain their sovereignty whatever it takes. And we will see whether or not this allegation is close to the truth in the short run. 

--Today the Abkhazian people can really benefit by zigzagging between Georgia and Russia. However, if they finally tilt towards Russia, the only thing that will fall into their hands is Russia’s guarantees that, as you know and as the recently unfolded events in Ukraine have also shown, cannot be deemed to be a great asset. Despite these guarantees as well as an ostentatious backing from other states, the sovereign country of Ukraine was collapsed like a jerry-built hut. And other countries have done absolutely nothing to prevent this from happening. Against this backdrop, the Abkhazian people must either measure the situation extremely carefully or must bring the country’s history to an end by making an impetuous and irrational decision. As you know, making a person strongly determined to commit suicide come round and change his mind is not a very easy task to deal with. As the left-wing party claims, the Government has taken this step due to the fact that they did not know whether or not they would get involved in the Security Council session; in addition, the National Movement made it clear that they plan to hold a demonstration regarding the issue of Abkhazia on November 15. Does the allegation from the opposition seem credible?

- If the protest event could have really pushed one of the authorities to attend the Security Council Session, this would have been a really great honor for the National Movement as well as the representatives of any left-wing party, especially, under the given circumstances, when the Nationals don’t spare efforts to convince the public that the Government is trembling with fear before them. And, as you know, they never miss a chance to underscore that the representatives of their party are a leading opposition power which is almost on par with the right-wing party. However, actually, even if the acting authorities voluntarily relinquished their power today, the Nationals would not manage to take up the reigns anyway. Our people would vote for anyone but not for this vicious force, and, clearly, our Government is very well aware of this fact. Hence, I would have been better off if you did not ask me to release a comment on this extremely ridiculous allegation saying that the Nationals’ rally can make the present authorities take this or that step.

- President of Georgia, Giorgi Margvelashvili, announced live on the air on Rustavi- TV2 that he is ready to meet with the Russian leader Vladimir Putin, if he, on his part, expresses readiness to seriously discuss the most vulnerable issue for us that is the issue of breakaway regions. In your opinion, is the President’s proposal to meet the Russian strongman his own initiation or the position approved by the leading power beforehand?

-- As you know, recently, Mr. Margvelashvili has also issued a statement saying that a rift between him and the representatives of different branches of the Government has been incited because of their attempt to inure the constitution to our reality, and personally I do agree with this statement and think that there is no need to even more exacerbate the situation.

As for the High Executive’s presumable meeting with Putin, we’d better not expand on this matter before a solution is provided to the issue of Abkhazia. In the given situation, our move to actively contact Russia may raise unfounded doubts among Russians, Abkhazians as well as the representatives of the West. As for these contacts, they can prove to be rather beneficial for us; however, before holding high-level meetings, the two sides must build up unofficial contacts. Such contacts between the parties can already exist; however, precisely they may prompt them to abstain from developing official contacts.

- The “Dream” Government has presented a report for the Government activity for the last 2 years. The Premier as well as other members of our Government have issued innumerable statements regarding this issue… In your opinion, do the evaluations from our high-officials and ordinary people coincide with one another?

-If these evaluations overlapped one another, the Premier would presumably not have introduced us to the aforementioned report. Since he has taken this step, the Government thinks that the people’s evaluations regarding the authorities’ taken steps are not similar to theirs.

-- Do those at the helm of the country stand a chance of adopting a more trenchant policy and taking more effective steps to move the country forward and secure their victory in the coming elections of 2016?

- You know, 2 years is not enough time for doing this. Although the founder of this Coalition has succeeded in gaining a landslide victory in the elections in a year; but he managed this thanks to an extremely well-though out policy and immensely measured steps. Thus, if we look at this issue from different angle and if we assume that the present authorities can show political savvy and flair and can make really arduous efforts to achieve this goal, nothing on earth can be excluded.

- In order to boost the effectiveness of the Coalition “Georgian Dream”, the “Republican Party” has offered two alternatives to its partners: 1. to restructure the party so as to form a new type of European Coalition and 2. to maintain a body in which the representatives of different parties will be entitled to freely show their ideology and proclaim their opinions regarding different issues. In your opinion, how big is the chance that the Georgian Dream Coalition will accept the proposal from the Republican Party or is there any possibility that the Republicans will withdraw themselves from the Coalition?

- The aforementioned proposal is fraught with a number of unspecified details. I do not really think that party politics in Georgia is on such a high level of its development that it can enable us to meet the European standards at this point in time. And you know our desire to chase European standards can put us in an extremely ridiculous position without bringing any tangible results to our country or to our people. As for the possible collapse of the Coalition, this can easily lead us to a dead-end and if this happens the state could even lose its ability to make political decisions. How can a country or any of its parties benefit from such terrible situation?

-- Their move to imprison the officials of the Defense Ministry on the charge of embezzlement has stimulated a slew of speculations regarding Irakli Alasania’s future. In your opinion, what has sparked this outcry? Do their presumptions seem well-founded? If Mr. Alasania really steps down as many think so, what can push him to take this step? As for Irakli Sesiashvili, he strongly holds that Mr. Alasania must not resign at least before the investigation is wrapped up…

- We have already made an unwarrantable mistake in relation to the Ministry of Agriculture when we made the issue of the Minister’s political accountability as a topic of hot debate. I do hope that this experience will make us be more restrained in the future and calmly wait for the final outcome of the investigation.

- The ex-President’s statements made live on the air from New York stirred our public to express different opinions. Many of them think that in his speech Mikheil Saakashvili has, in fact, predicted a coup in Georgia. What do you think, how big is the chance that the rally of 15 November can serve as a starting point and a preparatory phase for this political upheaval in Georgia? Are the Nationals expected to start staging rallies against the Government before the end of the year?

- The National Movement cannot really pin their hopes on street rallies as these rallies have never brought anything good to them. By taking such irrational steps, they will only spur the people to rally around the Government. If this is their endgame, then what makes them represent the left-wing party? However, by destabilizing the country and heating up conflicts here, they might terminate the process of legal prosecution to which they have already been subjected.

Koba Bendeliani

InterPressNews