Russia does not need this or that region of Georgia; it needs all of Georgia under its thumb -- Pavel Felgenhauer
InterPressNews sat down with Russian military expert and famous political analyst, Pavel Felgenhauer, to discuss different acute issues such as the prospects of resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the present situation in Russia, potential scenarios of its future developments as well as the possible consequences and if the ongoing processes in Russia can happen in Georgia.
- At the UN Security Council, permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations, Yuriy Sergeyev, mentioned that the facts push us to jump at the conclusion that starting a large-scale military operation in Ukraine falls into Russia’s plans today. In your opinion, does this allegation ring true?
At this point in time, realizing this plan is, in fact, impossible as in order to launch a large-scale military operation in the country, Russia needs to militarily intervene not only in Donbas but also in other districts of Ukraine. And as you know, winter is not a perfect season for military maneuvers which is why I rule out that Russia will attack Ukraine now. Thus, in my mind, the Ukrainian ambassador has simply over exaggerated the threats coming from Russia at this time. However, theoretically it is not excluded that the Russian troops will converge on Ukraine after the end of the year, and more precisely, in spring, 2015; in the wake of this, tensions may also be heightened in Donbas.
To cut it short, due to a wide range political, economic, meteorological and other deterring factors, I exclude that Russia will launch a large-scale military operation in Ukraine in the coming days.
- In your mind, what kind of a role has the West’s move to levy sanctions on Russia played in Ukraine’s conflict?
Obviously, these sanctions have inflicted major harm on Russia and have caused its financial lifeline and economy to slump. Russia is, in fact, dwelling in stagnation now, the people’s social conditions are incrementally worsening and the issue of a serious economic recession has become a topic of ongoing discussions in the country today. On top of that, inflation is alarmingly high there, Russia is suffering from a lack of dollars and the Russian banks are unable to get credit.
Financial problems have already surfaced in Russia. Plus, soon we are expected to face some technological problems too. As you know, the U.S. and some states of Europe refused to ship hi-tech merchandise as well as military goods to Russia, while the latter spent around 2-2.5 billion precisely on these goods.
Russia’s economy has not gone over the proverbial cliff yet; however, when the supply of goods runs out, the terrible effect of these sanctions will be really sorely felt in the country.
- The EU has starkly warned the Kremlin against recognizing the so-called elections in Donetsk and Luhansk; otherwise it threatened a new set of sanctions against Russia. Thus, the Kremlin has held back from recognizing these elections; it has only welcomed them and the situation has remained unchanged…
- Right, no new sanctions have been put on us so far. However, if the situation is escalated in Europe in the future as well, political will for toughening sanctions may easily emerge.
-Recently, at the event commemorating the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall, the first and the last president of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, voiced support for Vladimir Putin. He appealed to the West to abstain from setting economic sanctions against Russia, get involved in a dialogue with it and discuss Europe’s security issues with the Russian strongman without the EU and NATO scenarios. In your opinion, will Europe take Gorbachev’s appeals into account?
- Gorbachev is an ambivalent political figure, a mixture of “black” and “white”, good and evil. In my mind, his appeals will not have a major effect on the decision-making process. Europe does listen to Gorbachev; however, this does not mean that they take his words into consideration.
- The issue of Russian borders has been thrown into the mix among the “Russian patriots” today; however, they don’t specify which states Russia is determined to try to swallow. In your mind, what is Russia’s endgame? At what does the Russian leader aim by launching his campaign in Ukraine as well as in the entire post-Soviet space?
It’s quite clear that Russia is moved by a strong desire to determine its sphere of influence within the post soviet space. Thus, it aims to turn the former SU states into its strategic pillars. Therefore, what they will call this new union is a non-issue today, as the Eurasian Union or something else. We all know that, actually, long-term plans in Moscow are elaborated by the Gen Staff, the representatives of which are sure that by 2015-2030, the World War for additional resources will break out, and they are actively getting ready for this now. And today they’re building military bases in Arctic as well as in other regions.
Thus, at this point in time, Russia is preparing for that ominous time when everyone will go to war for resources with it. Within these preparations, an astronomical amount of money is being spent. As per the Russian Gen Staff, military bases must also be renovated in the former SU states. And in order to do this, the former SU countries cannot get in Russia’s way by siding with the West through joining NATO or the EU since in the wake of this, these territories can be easily used for planning military operations against Russia. Precisely this is the reason why, the western orientation of Georgia and Ukraine not only gets on the Russian leader’s nerves but he also considers this to be simply inadmissible for him. From this it automatically follows that the present leadership of Russia will try its best to thwart Georgia and Ukraine in moving closer to the West.
Russia thinks that from the furthest antiquity it commenced preemptive wars only. As a result of precisely these wars, it has expended its territory by gobbling up other states. I cannot tell you for certain, how they will label a new union; however, the actual fact is that the Kremlin plans to form this union in the former post-Soviet space.
-- Under the given circumstances, when new energy sources have already been discovered and they will presumably replace the old sources of energy in the immediate future, who will need to launch wars for Russian oil and gas?
-- I’ve not told you that the idea of launching wars for Russian resources seems credible to me. I’ve only informed you regarding the plans of the Russian Gen Staff, which enjoy backing from the Russian political upper crust. Thus, they plan to revitalize the Russian armed forces and build a number of new military bases…
--Let’s move onto the Ukraine topic again. In your opinion, how far can Russia go in its anti-Ukrainian campaign?
- Russia aims to hamper Ukraine from becoming an integral constituent of the West whatever it takes. The Russian leader will not spare energy or economic, political and financial resources to achieve this paramount objective. Putin planned to deploy his troops in Ukraine in as early as spring; however, later he turned down his plans hoping that the Ukrainians or Mr. Poroshenko would have foregone their ambition to move closer to the EU. Today, Russia hopes that severe economic problems in Ukraine will finally result in its collapse, and having realized that protecting the devastated country is like flogging a dead horse, Europe will cede this territory to Russia.
- On Nov. 12, President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, addressed his people with extremely interesting words. “The coming years will put the entire world to the test, and, obviously, we also will have to go through immensely hard times, as this period is expected to be the time of drastic changes. Not all the countries will be able to pass this test, and only, worthy, powerful and consolidated nations are expected to survive in the future. At what may point the President’s address. We are left with the impression that he knows something; however, he keeps this something under wraps…
- A global war is imminent. The Russians might have explained to Nazarbayev that soon the entire world will raid his country for resources. Generally, the situation is exacerbated in the Central Asia with time. This region is a black spot today, and the Russians know this perfectly well. Simply, Russia cannot deal with the huge pile of problems in different regions all at once…
No one knows when the ticking time bomb that Central Asia is sitting will blow. Today problems are ever-present not only in Afghanistan but also in Uzbekistan, which has a rather old president without worthy scion and with legion of adversaries. In these words, I mean the Islamic Movement of this country. These people are in possession of rather powerful military units and can benefit from the hard situation in the state at anytime.
- On his Facebook page, a prominent Russian political expert, Alexander Kokh, posted a statement as follows: “we will soon be caught in the grips of a large-scale war… Everyone wants blood; everyone strives for having it, and when everyone wants blood, they will undoubtedly get it. A premonition of catastrophe has besieged me and I know that today we are teetering on the verge of disaster…Do you think that like the Ukrainian Ambassador, the political expert has also over exaggerated the present situation?
- Mr. Kokh is not the only man who develops similar ideas in Russia today. The present status quo in Russia is really worth voicing concerns over. A new Civil War with the tactics of the old one has already been launched here. In addition, in its military maneuvers, Russia has actively employed the tactics of teetering on the verge of nuclear war. This rather dangerous method of intimidation and blackmailing has been used by Russia while dealing with the U.S. and former SU countries, and by doing this, it has very often succeeded in achieving its objectives. However, we all know that pursuing “the teetering on the brink of war” policy is like playing with fire. As today’s situation does not really strongly suggest that the possibility of launching a nuclear war is below zero; however, this also does not mean that this grim war cannot be averted.
-- Here is another noteworthy opinion from Yuri Ponomoriov of Russia’s Science Academy: “either Russia will find enough power to form itself as a true European, democratic, Christian and patriotic country or it will join the ranks of the third World countries. Unfortunately, today, we are walking on very thin ice.” In your opinion, what are the possible scenarios of Russia’s future developments?
- Nowadays no optimal outcome from the Ukrainian crisis is looming on the horizon for Russia. Those at the helm of the Kremlin have different views regarding this issue. I do completely share Mr. Panomoriov’s above-cited position; however, I am clueless regarding the fact of what kind of an outcome we will be faced with in the end. The situation in Russia is really tough today. And opinion clashes and confrontations among our public as well as our political elite make it even tougher.
- However, some experts claim that the Russian political elite are a monolithic entity...
- Only those people develop similar ideas in our country today who once talked regarding the integrity of the SU people. As I have already mentioned before, discrepancy and opinion clashes are not only among the Russian political leaders but also among the ordinary people as everyone can comprehend at what the government’s policy can lead us. It’s safe to say that many of us, including me, don’t like the policy of the Kremlin, where controversy has also become commonplace.
--It really can be so but all decisions in our state are still being made by the autocratic leader…
- I agree. Putin is an emperor in Russia today and he must be trying to balance the people with different opinions in his kingdom. In April, this year, a great deal of Russians wanted to send the troops in Ukraine despite the fact that Putin has never mandated them to take this step. However, in August, when Russian forces stood a strong chance of being defeated in the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, Vladimir Putin redoubled efforts to prevent this from happening…
Actually, Russia has not recognized the Donetsk and Luhanks elections. Hence, relaying on this, we can boldly state that the Russian strongman is trying to balance the situation in the country today. Under other circumstances, the Russian troops may have already been amassed along Dniester or Poland. If Putin was seriously determined to raid Ukraine, nothing on earth would have stopped him from doing this in April, especially, when the Ukrainian military is so weak that it can’t even manage serious resistance against the Russian army. Once again I repeat: the Russian leader must be balancing different powers in the Russian political elite. Although there are some constants which Russia will never turn down: 1. Russia will never let them best his military forces in Donbas; 2. we will never allow Ukraine to integrate itself with NATO or the EU. These words are obviously applicable to Georgia as well.
- The issue of building a road via Georgia, and namely the region of Kakheti as well as the railway of Abkhazia, has recently become points of ongoing discussions in the Kremlin. At what may this point?
- This move from the Kremlin is nothing more than intimidation and blackmailing simultaneously. However, it can also mean that they are offering such an attractive proposal to the country that is difficult to pass up. Russia needs the entire Transcaucasia; it does not need Armenia only. It is strongly determined to regain control of the entire region… Likewise, Russia does not need this or that region of Georgia; it wants to assume control of the entire country. Russia is pursuing its ambitious dream rooted in the memory of Soviet glory: the entire post Soviet-space under its thumb. To cut it short, since Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations are something undesirable for Russia, it will definitely find the means to pull this country back into its orbit.
Koba Bendeliani
InterPressNews
