The Emir is Dead, Hail to the Emir

In the morning of April 20, 2015, law enforcement officers eliminated six militants in the village of Harei-Avlaki, Dagestan. The house that the militants were in was surrounded, and, after an hour of combat, blown up from within – after an attempt to break the siege proved futile. After the dust settled, it was revealed that the casualty list included Emir Abu Muhammad (Aliaskhab Kebekov) of the so-called Caucasus Emirate, along with his close associates and his wife.

After the burials (it took a lot of time and persuasion for Russians to hand over the bodies), a new question emerged: Who will become the new leader of Caucasus Emirate? This issue bothers not only the underground militants of the Northern Caucasus, but the entire region, since there exists a significant chance of the Emirate’s flags getting replaced with those of the Islamic State in the future.

The Caucasus Emirate (Imarat Kavkaz) was founded on October 7, 2007, by Doku Umarov, Ichkerian Republic’s president-in-exile. The territory of the newly proclaimed state spanned Chechnya, Adyghea, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, Dagestan and part of Krasnodar Krai.

The beginning of a military conflict in Syria was followed by the weakening of the Emirate’s influence, due to many of its supporters leaving the Northern Caucasus to fight against Assad’s regime rather than staying and fighting against Putin’s. They formed a cell called Jaish al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar (Army of Emigrants and Supporters), which quickly gained notoriety.

In the meanwhile, the Caucasus Emirate’s unsuccessful attempt to disrupt the Sochi Olympics was followed by death of Doku Umarov, its leader. The latter occurrence was such a serious blow to the organization that jihadist websites spent six months denying it. Umarov was succeeded, for the first time since Ichkerian independence, by a man who was not an ethnic Chechen, but a Dagestani – Aliaskhab Kebekov, also known as Abu Muhammad.

Experts claim that the Emirate was not as bloodthirsty under Kebekov’s rule, and that the emir tried to solve problems through Sharia law rather than violence. Kebekov also banned women from becoming suicide bombers. According to Kebekov, jihad was for men only. However, he was not much of an authority: Field commander Aslan Byutukayev was in constant competition with him for the right to control the organization’s military operations.

Quite unexpectedly, Russia stopped being the main danger for the Caucasus Emirate with the emergence of the Islamic State. The organization became split, with one part advocating support for Al Qaeda and another promoting allegiance to the newly created Islamist organization. In this confrontation of ideologies, the main opponent of Kebekov and other warlords who remained loyal to Al Qaeda was the notorious Chechen warlord from Pankisi Gorge, Tarkhan Batirashvili, better known as Abu Omar Al-Shishani. His influence was so strong that some even started considering him the grey cardinal behind the Caucasus Emirate’s actions.

The attack on Grozny in December of 2014 showed the world that the Emirate had not lost its taste for guerilla warfare. However, the stronger the Islamic State becomes, the more power the Emirate loses. 2014 saw several prominent warlords swear loyalty to the Islamic State’s leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and leave the organization.

At the moment, experts predict a dissolution of the Caucasus Emirate. According to them, the only way for it to stay afloat is to find a leader that can match the “red-bearded general” Al-Shishani in fame and authority alike. The only person that matches the description so far is Murad Margoshvili, another Pankisian Chechen going under the name Muslim Abu Walid al-Shishani, who is currently a leader of Junud al-Sham insurgent cell in Syria. According to him, he remains loyal to the Caucasus Emirate and is in Syria only to fight against Assad, who is a Russian proxy.

In fear of seeing the Islamic State’s flags in the North Caucasus, Ramzan Kadyrov, the infamous leader of the Chechen Republic and Putin’s pet warlord, has begun negotiations with the Emirate’s remaining leaders, even promising them amnesty.

This entire situation is of great significance to Georgia, as the appearance of the Islamic State’s militants in the Northern Caucasus will be followed by the strengthening of its recruiting lobby in Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge. Considering that some of the Islamist recruiters have already managed to worm their way into the Gorge and about 200 Kists (Pankisian Chechens) count themselves among the Islamic State’s ranks, the prospect of it rising to threaten Georgia’s borders should not be disregarded as improbable.

Author: Nino Burchuladze